There are no essential corrections in the prediction for Slovenia, but the commission is more optimistic for this year, and it expects the commitments regarding the deficit will be met.

Last year the growth in Slovenia – due to export, and investments from European funds – was 2.6%. This year the growth will at first decelerate, as both the export and the investments will diminish, but next year it will grow again to 2.3. The lower growth of public investments than planed presents the key risk.

The numbers show that Slovenia will manage to abolish the excessive government deficit in time – thanks to the subsidy reforms and the prolongation of measures to reduce the public sector pay bill – will be this year reduced to 2.9%, i.e. just below the limit.

The potential risks of additional one-off costs – including the bank salvaging costs, and the scheme to repay deposit holders of Ljubljanska Banka – are smaller. It is expected that unemployment will slowly decline, and private sector wages are expected to rise moderately.

IMAD: Brussels prediction similar to ours
The institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD), which predicts 1.7% increase of GDP, estimates that the small difference between theirs, and the Commission prediction arises from the expected increase of the government spending, without considering any changes in politics. IMAD emphasizes that Brussels confirms their predictions.

T. K. B., E. Š.
Translated by G. K.