Last November the forecast was much worse, as OECD predicted 0.9% decrease of GDP. Now they claim that instead of continuing recession, in this and in the next year in Slovenia a week economic growth is expected – 0.3% in this year, and 1.2% in the next year.

The economy is gaining strength
The forecast is more reserved than the one made by the European Commission. OECD warns of the pressing need for restructuring of overindebted economy, and privatisation. They wrote that the activity of the Slovenian economy will start strengthening this year, as export will increase due to increased demand from abroad.

The weakness within the banking sector and the necessary redemption of indebted companies will have negative influence on investments, and the continuation of the fiscal consolidation will continue dampening the consumption. In their opinion Slovenia needs to consolidate the banking system, and increase the supervision of banks. Among the key reforms needed the new pension reform is deemed necessary.

The unemployment rate won't change, while the government deficit will, according to OECD projection, amount to 4.1% of GDP. OECD has slightly improved the projection of growth for eurozone, and at the same time slightly lowered the projection of global growth.

European Commission more optimistic
The European Commission in its spring economic forecast for Slovenia, released on Monday, predicted 0.8% economic growth, which should next year reach 1.4%.

Also the projections of the Bank of Slovenia expect the Slovenian GDB to increase this year by 0.6%, and next year the growth should reach 1.4%, and 1.7% in 2016.

Matjaž Trošt, Brussels
Translated by G. K.